Monthly Publication

In the last IPC Session held from 30th October to 2nd November 2012 in Colombo, Sri Lanka, after a detailed discussion, approved production and export estimates of pepper in 2012 would be around 324,000 mt and 249,000 mt respectively, as against 317,700 mt and 246,200 mt in 2011. Taking into account of stock brought forward from 2011, import and domestic consumption in 2012, around 85,750 mt would be carried forward as stocks for 2013. The stock is relatively small when compared to stock at the beginning of the year at 90,585 mt. The stock carry over for 2013 is expected to meet only the export demand before new material from next year crops arrive in the market. Under this situation, pepper price in the coming months is expected to remain high.

Price

In October 2012 pepper prices at source markets showed a mixed response. Local prices in India and Sarawak increased, while in Brazil, Lampung and Vietnam decreased. In Sri Lanka the local price was relatively stable. In the case of fob price, a decrease up to 3% was recorded at most of the origins, except India. Fob price in India increased by 5%.

The IPC pepper price index was relatively stable or increased marginally by 0.34 point for black and 1.04 point for white pepper in October 2012 (Table1). The composite price of pepper increased marginally by 0.1% and 0.5% to USD 6,581 and USD 9,235 per mt for black and white pepper respectively in October 2012. (Table 2).

Table2. IPC Price Index (Base price: Average 2006 - 2010)

Table 3: Composite Price of Black and White Pepper (US$/MT)

Note: Composite prices are derived from calculation of monthly export and FOB price of the top five pepper exporting countries (Vietnam, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Malaysia)
Export Performance

During October 2012 total export of pepper from major exporting countries is estimated to have increased, mainly due to significant increase of export from Lampung. Export from Sri Lanka also increased, while export from Brazil, India and Malaysia decreased. The six major exporting/producing countries together exported around 21,600 mt in October 2012 (around 90% of black and 10% of white) as against 18,000 mt in October 2011, registering an increase of 20%. However, when compared to the export of 25,540 mt in the previous month, namely September 2012, the export in October decreased by 16%. During January - October 2012, export from these countries decreased by 3% from 207,900 mt performed in January - October 2011. January - October 2012 performance was at 201,700 mt (around 86% of black and 14% of white). The following chart will give clear indication of export of pepper during January - October 2012 and January - October 2011.

INDONESIA has exported around 8,800 mt of pepper comprising of 8,000 mt of black and 800 mt of white pepper in October 2012, registering a substantial increase of 187% compared to the export of 3,070 mt in October 2011. Total export during January - October 2012 was around 46,600 mt (38,100 mt of black and 8,500 mt of white). When compared to export in the same period last year, an increase of 45% was recorded. The increase in export was due to substantial increase of production during the year from 45,000 mt in 2011 to 63,000 mt in 2012. Up to December 2012, export of pepper from Indonesia is estimated to be around 53,000 mt, leaving a carryover stock of around 9,600 mt.

During October 2012 BRAZIL is estimated to have exported around 4,000 mt of pepper as against 4,700 mt in October 2011. Compared to the export of 2,790 mt in the previous month (September 2012), the export has increased by 43%. Total export of Brazil during January - October 2012 was 22,500 mt, registering a decrease of 11% from 25,300 mt in January - October 2011. During the year a total of 27,500 mt of pepper is estimated to be shipped from Brazil.

INDIA is estimated to have exported around 1,000 mt in October 2012. This quantity was significantly lower when compared to export of 2,500 mt shipped in October 2011. During January - October 2012 export from India was around 15,700 mt as against 18,000 mt in January - October 2011, registering a decline of 13%. Up to December 2012 around 17,500 mt of pepper is expected to be exported from India.

In October 2012, export of pepper from VIETNAM was around 6,000 mt, which is more or less at the same level of pepper exported in October 2011. During January - October 2012 Vietnam is estimated to have exported 99,500 mt, as against 115,700 mt in the last year corresponding period, or decreased by 14% During 2012 Vietnam is estimated to export 108,000 mt as against 118,400 mt in 2011.

MALAYSIA-S export of pepper during October 2012 was 1,077 mt (890 mt of black and 187 mt of white). This quantity represents a decrease of 42% when compared to the export of 1,870 mts in October 2011. During January - October 2012, export of pepper from Malaysia is estimated at 8,304 mt which is lower by 3,546 mt compared to the corresponding period of the last year. In January - October 2011 the export was 11,850 mt.

SRI LANKA exported 692 mt of pepper during October 2012 as against 34 mt in October 2011. During January - October 2012 export from Sri Lanka was 9,120 mt as against 4,800 mt exported in the same period last year, registering a significant increase of 90%.

Overall, total export of pepper from the six major producing countries was 201,200 mt, which 6,200 lower from the total export in the same period last year. In the remaining months of the year it is expected that exports would be higher, mainly from Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil and total export from the six major producing countries in 2012 is estimated to be more or less same as the total exports in 2011.

Tentative export figures for the month of October and January - October 2012 and 2011 are given in the following table.

Note: Figures are tentative and subject to change