Weekly Publications

Local prices in pepper-producing countries were reported to experience mixed responses this week. When comparing with the previous week, the prices of black pepper at the farm level were reported to have decreased by 3% in India, Viet Nam and 1% in Sri Lanka. Opposed to India, Viet Nam, and Sri Lanka, the price of black pepper at the farm level in Indonesia and Malaysia increased by 3% and 1% respectively. Price increases also occurred for Muntok White Pepper and Malaysia White Pepper, both products experienced price increases of 3% and 1% respectively as opposed to last week. The increase in pepper prices in dollar terms was due to the strengthening of the Indonesian and Malaysian local currencies against the US Dollar by 2% and 1% respectively. At farm level Viet Nam, white pepper was traded 5% lower than the previous week.

In local currency, the average prices of black pepper this week were reported to be Rs 355 per Kg in India, IDR 33,000 per Kg in Indonesia, VND 50,100 per Kg in Viet Nam, RM 9.4 per Kg in Malaysia, and LKR 580 per Kg in Sri Lanka. While the prices of white pepper were reported to be IDR 53,000 per Kg in Indonesia, VND 83,500 per Kg in Viet Nam, RM 15.8 per Kg in Malaysia, and CNY 32.73 per Kg in China.

FOB Prices for black pepper and white pepper also experienced a trend similar to pepper prices at the farm level. The FOB prices of black pepper and white pepper in Indonesia increased by 3%, and in Malaysia there was a 1% increase. Whereas India and Viet Nam experienced a decrease in FOB Prices between 1 - 3%.

Furthermore, the Spot Prices of white pepper and black pepper in New York were reported to be stable, the same as last week. Following the brink of new crop arrival in Viet Nam and the full swing of Vitoria crop, pressure to the global pepper price is expected to continue.

PROJECTION OF IMPORT AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF PEPPER BY INDIA, INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, SRI LANKA, VIET NAM, BRAZIL, AND CHINA IN 2019:

In 2019 pepper exports and consumption are projected to face a mixed response. India is projected to import 17,700 Mt consisting of 16,500 Mt black pepper and 1,200 Mt white pepper. Kerala flood damage in India appeard to be costly, pepper production in India this year is projected to be at 47,000 Mt which is 27% lower as opposed to the estimated production in 2018, India\'s exports are also projected to be quite high (17,000 Mt). So as to meet domestic consumption which is expected to reach 58,000 Mt (consisting of 56,500 Mt black pepper, and 1,500 Mt white pepper), India relies on imports, which is projected to be 51% higher as opposed to estimated figure of 2018, and stocks from the previous year which are already thinning.

Indonesia in 2019 is projected to produce slighty 7% lower (65,000 Mt) when compared to the previous year. This year Indonesia is projected to import 850 Mt of pepper consisting of 700 Mt black pepper and 150 Mt white pepper. Peppers imported by Indonesia are mostly processed pepper. Indonesia is known to export pepper to several countries such as Viet Nam and Singapore for further processing. After further proccessing the pepper was shipped back to Indonesia. To meet domestic consumption, Indonesia is projected to be able to fulfill it from domestic production. This year, domestic consumption in Indonesia is projected to reach 29,750 Mt consisting of 15,250 Mt black pepper and 14,500 Mt white pepper.

With production projected to reach 24,000 Mt and export 14,000 Mt, then pepper stocks in Malaysia are still lacking to meet domestic consumption needs. In 2019 domestic consumption in Malaysia is projected to reach 11,150 Mt consisting of 6,690 Mt black pepper and 4,460 Mt white pepper. To meet domestic needs, Malaysia is projected to import 2,000 Mt of pepper consisting of 1,500 Mt black pepper and 500 Mt white pepper.

Sri Lanka is projected to produce 26,700 Mt of pepper and export 20,200 Mt this year which would be an increase of 44% and 80% resepectively. Domestic consumption in Sri Lanka in 2019 is projected to reach 11,505 Mt consisting of 11,500 Mt black pepper and 5 Mt white pepper. For domestic consumption needs, Sri Lanka is still able to rely on pepper stocks from the previous year. Imports in 2019 will be carried out by Sri Lanka to maintain domestic stock stability. In addition to maintaining stock stability, Sri Lanka is also known to import pepper with the same purpose as Indonesia, namely the quality improvement of pepper carried out abroad. Imports by Sri Lanka are projected to reach 1,200 Mt, consisting of 1,000 Mt black pepper and 200 Mt white pepper.

As a country with the largest pepper production in the world, Viet Nam is projected to continue importing 35,000 Mt of pepper consisting of 30,000 Mt black pepper and 5,000 Mt white pepper. Viet Nam is known to import pepper for further proccessing. Some producing countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia are projected to export pepper to Viet Nam for further proccessing. In addition, the import to Viet Nam is also projected to be re-exported. Viet Nam imports high-quality pepper from several producing countries for the purpose of exporting it back to consumer countries. Furthermore, in 2019, domestic consumption in Viet Nam is projected to reach 9,000 Mt consisting of 8,000 Mt black pepper and 1,000 Mt white pepper. To meet domestic consumption needs, Viet Nam will rely on its production and stocks from the previous year.

In 2019, Brazil is projected to only import 300 Mt black pepper. Brazil\'s projected production is 7% lower (67,000 Mt) than the previous year which is capable of meeting domestic consumption needs. This year Brazil\'s domestic consumption is projected to reach 7,000 Mt consisting of 6,700 Mt black pepper and 300 Mt white pepper.
Although it is projected to have production of 33,000 Mt and export of only 1,000 Mt, in 2019 China still imports pepper to meet its domestic consumption. As the number one biggest population in the world, this year domestic consumption in China is projected to reach 75,000 Mt consisting of 40,000 Mt black pepper and 35,000 Mt white pepper. To meet domestic consumption, China cannot rely solely on domestic production and stocks from the previous year which would only amounted around 36,000 Mt. China is projected to import 40,000 Mt black pepper and 3,500 Mt white pepper so that the total pepper to be imported by China in 2019 is projected to reach 43,500 Mt.